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Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 10% −1Wednesday, 4 November 2026
The day in one page: what moved and why, what the market saw coming, where it disagreed with the news, and what resolved.
Story of the day
Biggest moves
- Kalshi James Talarico, ≥8% 99% +83
On: Democrats Flip Texas Senate, Governorship and Attorney General in Historic Midterm Upset
- Kalshi Yes 98% +46
On: Democrats Sweep US Midterms in Historic Blue Wave Rout of Republicans
- Kalshi James Talarico, 3+ pts 100% +43
On: Democrats Flip Texas Senate, Governorship and Attorney General in Historic Midterm Upset
- Kalshi El-Sayed, 3+ pts 100% +32
+11 after The Hill: Democrat Jeremy Moss wins Michigan race to succeed Haley Stevens
- Kalshi 54 1% −17
On: US Markets Surge After Democratic Midterm Sweep, Oil Slides
- Kalshi Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate? 99% +10
On: Democrats Sweep US Midterms in Historic Blue Wave Rout of Republicans
- Kalshi Benjamin Netanyahu 9% −8
On: Netanyahu Presses Trump for Renewed Iran Strikes Amid Coalition Talks
- Polymarket Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? 11% −8
On: US strikes Iranian targets on Qeshm Island amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
The market moved first
odds +57 in the day before the first report · −34 after
odds +22 in the day before the first report · −17 after
odds +11 in the day before the first report · −5 after
odds −9 in the day before the first report · 0 after
odds +5 in the day before the first report · +3 after
News vs. market
Big story, market unmoved
17 publishers in 24 hours · odds up 1 point
14 publishers in 24 hours · odds up 3 points
8 publishers in 24 hours · odds up 1 point
8 publishers in 24 hours · odds up 1 point
6 publishers in 24 hours · odds up 3 points
6 publishers in 24 hours · odds down 1 point
Market moving, news quiet
1 publisher in 24 hours · odds up 27 points
Gaining speed
+6 new publishers
+6 new publishers
+5 new publishers
+5 new publishers
+5 new publishers
+9 new publishers on top of 3
+6 new publishers on top of 1
+4 new publishers
Resolved
- Spread: West Ham United FC (-2.5) Cardiff City FC · market had Cardiff City FC at 87% · called it
- Will Cardiff City FC vs. West Ham United FC end in a draw? Yes · market had No at 77% · missed
- Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: Both Teams to Score No · market had Yes at 59% · missed
- New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5 Under · market had Under at 67% · called it
- Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 Under · market had Over at 60% · missed
- KV Kortrijk vs. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under · market had Under at 82% · called it
- KV Kortrijk vs. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under · market had Over at 71% · missed
- Will KV Kortrijk vs. Yellow-Red KV Mechelen end in a draw? No · market had No at 73% · called it