Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Implied probability 19%+2
24-hour volume$88k
Total volume$75.1M
Liquidity$309k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 19% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Oct, 23:36 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 18% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 16:19 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Oct, 06:00 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 22:24 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 15:30 UTC | 14% |
| 20 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 16% |
| 20 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 14% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 15% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the United States starts a military offensive to control any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if this specific action does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of 2027 or assume diplomatic talks count as an invasion.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 19%
- No 82%
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