Wisconsin small businesses could help turn Trump ally's district blue
Economic struggles among local entrepreneurs in Wisconsin's third district may shift the House race toward Democrats.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 86% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 20:07 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 03:07 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 80% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 3 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 3 November at 11:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about small businesses for a factor in the result, but the market resolves solely based on the official election winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
- Democratic party — the market puts it at 64%, with $265 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2029. The outcome is Yes if a Democrat takes office as a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin starting in 2029. The outcome is No if no Democrat holds that seat for that term. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the rule depends on who is sworn in for the specific 2029 term.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 2h ago
The market favoured Yes at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Democratic party 64% −2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Erin Klaus
- Wisconsin
- Donald Trump