Democrat David Crowley Wins Wisconsin Governor Race Hot: Odds moved 31 points in 24 hours
Crowley defeats Republican Tom Tiffany to become the state's first Black governor, succeeding Tony Evers.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by The Hill, 36 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 60% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Crowley, 4+ pts respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 4 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 4 November at 03:24 UTC; Fox News Politics followed 36 min later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 4 November at 04:33 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), NPR Politics (major outlet), politico.com (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet), Fox News Politics.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Crowley, 4+ pts — the market puts it at 92%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin governor's race by a margin of at least four percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than that margin or lose the election. Readers often mistake the linked headline for the resolution, but only the final certified vote count determines the result.
- At least 76% — the market puts it at 96%, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if David Crowley receives at least 76% of the popular vote in Dane County during the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from that specific county, not the statewide results or early projections. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date rather than the election day itself.
- At least 68% — the market puts it at 85%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if David Crowley receives at least 68% of the popular vote in Milwaukee County during the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from official election results, not early returns or polls. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date rather than the election day itself.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Crowley, 4+ pts at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillCrowley wins Wisconsin governor's race to succeed Evers60%
- Fox News PoliticsDemocrat David Crowley makes history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor94%▲34 points since the previous source
- NPR PoliticsDemocrat David Crowley will be Wisconsin's first Black governor94%
- politico.comDemocrat David Crowley clinches historic win in Wisconsin governors race94%
- CBS News PoliticsDemocrat David Crowley wins Wisconsin governor's race94%
- Current odds92%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Democrat David Crowley wins Wisconsin governor's race CBS News Politics ·
- Democrat David Crowley clinches historic win in Wisconsin governors race politico.com ·
- Democrat David Crowley will be Wisconsin's first Black governor NPR Politics ·
- Crowley wins Wisconsin governor's race to succeed Evers The Hill ·
- Democrat David Crowley makes history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor Fox News Politics
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Crowley, 4+ pts 92% +31
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi At least 76% 96% +16
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi At least 68% 85%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- David Crowley
- Tom Tiffany
- Wisconsin