At least 76%
Why it moved: +36 points at 04:03 UTC, after Fox News Politics: Democrat David Crowley makes history as Wisconsin’s first Black governor — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 04:03 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 60% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 80% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if David Crowley receives at least 76% of the popular vote in Dane County during the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The outcome depends on the certified percentage from that specific county, not the statewide results or early projections. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date rather than the election day itself.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 96%
- No 4%