Crowley, 4+ pts
Why it moved: +24 points at 03:33 UTC, after The Hill: Crowley wins Wisconsin governor's race to succeed Evers — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 06:50 UTC | 91% |
| 4 Nov, 06:00 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 60% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Democrats win the 2026 Wisconsin governor's race by a margin of at least four percentage points. The outcome is No if they win by less than that margin or lose the election. Readers often mistake the linked headline for the resolution, but only the final certified vote count determines the result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 91%
- No 9%