Democratic party
Why it moved: +5 points at 11:27 UTC, after The Guardian US: ‘In the trenches’: Wisconsin’s struggling small businesses could turn a Trump ally’s district blue — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 64% |
| 4 Nov, 09:57 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 69% |
| 4 Nov, 04:25 UTC | 64% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 65% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 68% |
| 3 Nov, 11:27 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Nov, 10:24 UTC | 61% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if a Democrat takes office as a U.S. Senator from Wisconsin starting in 2029. The outcome is No if no Democrat holds that seat for that term. Readers often mistake the election date for the resolution deadline, but the rule depends on who is sworn in for the specific 2029 term.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 64%
- No 36%