Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 86% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$78k
Total volume$604k
Liquidity$95k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 88% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 96% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 92% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 89% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 22:04 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 15:00 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 86% |
| 2 Nov, 00:33 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 18:54 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 13:24 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 85% |
| 1 Nov, 00:41 UTC | 86% |
| 1 Nov, 00:14 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 86% |
| 31 Oct, 20:07 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 84% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 85% |
| 31 Oct, 13:01 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 18:44 UTC | 84% |
| 30 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 07:32 UTC | 87% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 05:36 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 03:49 UTC | 86% |
| 29 Oct, 03:07 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 85% |
| 28 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 84% |
| 28 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 83% |
| 28 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 80% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if the Democratic nominee wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked story about small businesses for a factor in the result, but the market resolves solely based on the official election winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →