Jan 6 Pardoned Man Charged Over Threats to Kill Federal Judges

The story so far

2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 3 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 3 November at 17:45 UTC; The Hill followed 4h 04m later. The most recent article, from The Hill, appeared on 3 November at 21:49 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Guardian US (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Donald Trump — the market puts it at 61%, with $27 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about pardoning diesel mechanics as the triggering event, but only a formal presidential action counts.
• Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027? — the market puts it at 6%, with $5k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump issues a pardon, commutation, or reprieve between November 17, 2025, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this action does not occur within that specific timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline, thinking it applies to the date of the pardon rather than the end of the specified window.
• Yes — the market puts it at 81%, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, his immediate family, or their spouses receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about diesel mechanics for the triggering event, but only pardons granted to the specified individuals count.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.