Yes
Implied probability 78%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$23k
Liquidity$23k
Resolves21 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 78% |
| 13 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 78% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump, his immediate family, or their spouses receive a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about diesel mechanics for the triggering event, but only pardons granted to the specified individuals count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 78%
- No 22%