Donald Trump
Implied probability 50%
24-hour volume$5
Total volume$65k
Liquidity$65k
Resolves21 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 50% |
| 13 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 50% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about pardoning diesel mechanics as the triggering event, but only a formal presidential action counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 50%
- No 50%