First US F-16V fighters arrive in Taiwan amid China threat Hot: $77k traded on its market in 24 hours
Taiwan receives its first two upgraded jets from a $8bn order to bolster defenses against Beijing.
First reported by Times of India, 2h 15m ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Oct, 07:02 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 09:11 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 01:01 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 20:49 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 19:02 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 15:03 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 03:33 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 4% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 18:43 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:41 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 14:32 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 12:11 UTC | 4% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 2 Oct 2026. Times of India published first, on 2 October at 05:09 UTC; Deutsche Welle followed 2h 15m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 2 October at 08:26 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), Times of India, Deutsche Welle.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $77k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day in local time rather than Eastern Time.
- Taiwan — the market puts it at 1%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The outcome is Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and stays within Taiwan's borders between now and January 1, 2027. The outcome is No if he does not make such a visit by that deadline. Readers often mistake the arrival of military equipment for a presidential visit, but only Trump's physical presence counts.
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? — the market puts it at 9%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day rather than the specific time, or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 2% −1
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- Kalshi Taiwan 1%
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- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? 9%
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In this story
- Taiwan
- United States
- China