Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$72k
Total volume$44.8M
Liquidity$404k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 2% |
| 25 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 04:25 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 04:57 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 09:11 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Oct, 00:45 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 16:08 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 15:53 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 21:41 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 18:59 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:31 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 07:49 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 00:04 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 20:06 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day in local time rather than Eastern Time.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
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