Before Jan 20, 2029
Implied probability 10%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$30k
Liquidity$30k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the United States formally recognizes the Republic of China as a sovereign state independent from any previously recognized country before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the delivery of fighter jets for formal diplomatic recognition.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%