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How much the press wrote about Vance each day, and what its busiest market did over the same days.
Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 07:00 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 06:53 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 06:26 UTC | 26% |
| 8 Oct, 05:45 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 05:23 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 25% |
| 8 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 23% |
| 8 Oct, 02:40 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 21:37 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 19% |
| 7 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 17:02 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 16:55 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 15:55 UTC | 32% |
| 7 Oct, 14:41 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 13:33 UTC | 30% |
| 7 Oct, 12:33 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 31% |
| 7 Oct, 09:31 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Oct, 09:03 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 29% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Oct, 11:30 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 25% |
President Trump makes controversial remarks at a rally while the Pentagon prepares for potential combat operations in Iran ahead of midterm elections.
Iran increases tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz while oil exports rise, prompting Iraq to seek alternative transport routes.
Polymarket Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement? 26% −3The event will air just weeks before Michigan voters go to the polls for a hotly contested Senate race.
Kalshi Michigan 18%