Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?
Implied probability 0%−3
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$26k
Liquidity$21k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:12 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 00:00 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 2% |
| 3 Nov, 08:46 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 02:37 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 21:55 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 20:58 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 20:16 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 19:18 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 18:49 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 17:56 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 13:48 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 11:29 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 09:02 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 08:22 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 06:14 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 05:28 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 04:29 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 4% |
| 30 Oct, 01:55 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 23:47 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 23:12 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 11:20 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 09:12 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Oct, 06:11 UTC | 3% |
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party’s share of valid votes for U.S. House candidates exceeds the Republican Party’s share by at least 2 percentage points but no more than 4 percentage points. The final vote totals come from the US Clerk of the House, which includes any recounts published in their official results.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
Trade this market on Polymarket →