Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2?
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$16k
Liquidity$47k
Resolved3 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 3 Nov, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 1% |
| 2 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 0% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 20:57 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 20:14 UTC | 3% |
| 1 Nov, 18:40 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 14:01 UTC | 2% |
| 1 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 1% |
| 31 Oct, 07:04 UTC | 2% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Ken Paxton's odds exceed James Talarico's on PredictionMarketOdds.com for four consecutive hourly updates before November 3, 2026, at 12:00 AM ET. The source of truth is strictly the data published by PredictionMarketOdds.com, not news reports or other polling sites. Readers often mistake the deadline, which is based on when the odds are published rather than when the election occurs.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
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