James Talarico, 0-2%
Implied probability 1%−20
24-hour volume$54k
Total volume$118k
Liquidity$118k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 04:10 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 03:03 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:56 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 7% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 16% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 17:03 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 16:55 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 16:04 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 15:43 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 13:40 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 13:18 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Nov, 12:50 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 12:21 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 11:06 UTC | 16% |
| 3 Nov, 10:38 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Nov, 08:17 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Nov, 05:54 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Nov, 02:23 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 21:41 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Nov, 20:30 UTC | 21% |
| 2 Nov, 18:11 UTC | 19% |
| 2 Nov, 17:04 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 16:49 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 14:49 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 13:41 UTC | 18% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 10:50 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 10:07 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 09:39 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 04:26 UTC | 16% |
| 2 Nov, 03:42 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 03:06 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Nov, 02:58 UTC | 15% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 17% |
| 1 Nov, 01:34 UTC | 20% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if James Talarico's margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Senate election falls between 0% and 2%. It resolves to No if his margin is outside that range. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the official certification of results.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%