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US-Iran Talks Deadlock as OpenAI Halts New Model Rollout Hot: $70k traded on its market in 24 hours

Diplomatic efforts stall while the AI developer stops its planned release amid broader market and geopolitical uncertainty.

1 publisher · 3 articles · first seen 28 Sept 2026 · updated 5h ago

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 16% +4 $3k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? 14% +1 $70k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? 6% $6k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

How the odds moved · Before Jan 1, 2027
0%50%100%16%23 Sept, 07:27 UTCnowBloomberg.com: US-Iran Talks Deadlocked, OpenAI Scraps Rollout of New Model · 29 Sept, 03:22 UTCBloomberg.com: Iran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, OpenAI Halts New Model · 29 Sept, 01:08 UTCBloomberg.com: Iran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, Treasuries Selloff · 28 Sept, 22:24 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now16%
29 Sept, 05:53 UTC16%
28 Sept, 19:18 UTC14%
28 Sept, 01:11 UTC12%
27 Sept, 23:37 UTC10%
27 Sept, 22:47 UTC9%
27 Sept, 20:50 UTC10%
27 Sept, 19:27 UTC10%
27 Sept, 18:13 UTC9%
27 Sept, 16:44 UTC10%
27 Sept, 04:18 UTC10%
27 Sept, 00:34 UTC11%
26 Sept, 20:12 UTC9%
26 Sept, 12:37 UTC12%
26 Sept, 12:22 UTC9%
26 Sept, 05:16 UTC10%
25 Sept, 23:22 UTC11%
25 Sept, 22:22 UTC10%
25 Sept, 20:18 UTC11%
25 Sept, 10:29 UTC10%
25 Sept, 03:24 UTC11%
24 Sept, 22:45 UTC11%
24 Sept, 21:17 UTC12%
24 Sept, 17:42 UTC10%
24 Sept, 16:18 UTC11%
24 Sept, 14:18 UTC10%
24 Sept, 13:32 UTC9%
24 Sept, 05:12 UTC9%
24 Sept, 00:16 UTC14%
23 Sept, 22:20 UTC9%
23 Sept, 21:29 UTC11%
23 Sept, 19:21 UTC10%
23 Sept, 10:42 UTC9%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC11%

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How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2027 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Bloomberg.comIran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, Treasuries Selloff14%
  2. Bloomberg.comIran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, OpenAI Halts New Model14%
  3. Bloomberg.comUS-Iran Talks Deadlocked, OpenAI Scraps Rollout of New Model14%
  4. Current odds16%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. US-Iran Talks Deadlocked, OpenAI Scraps Rollout of New Model Bloomberg.com ·
  2. Iran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, OpenAI Halts New Model Bloomberg.com ·
  3. Iran Officials Pessimistic About US Deal, Treasuries Selloff Bloomberg.com ·

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