Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 29 Sept, 06:12 UTC | 6% |
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What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if a written diplomatic instrument committing Iran to surrender enriched uranium is signed or formally adopted by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The agreement must explicitly require the transfer of uranium outside Iranian territory and cannot be conditional on future negotiations. Readers often mistake informal talks or verbal agreements for a qualifying written instrument.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 6%
- No 95%
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