Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 11%−2
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$1.9M
Liquidity$1.9M
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 1 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 11% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 23:04 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 21:39 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 16:29 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 14:53 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 14:16 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 11% |
| 31 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 12% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 13% |
| 31 Oct, 02:26 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 01:11 UTC | 10% |
| 31 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 9% |
| 31 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 15:21 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Oct, 12:06 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 11:18 UTC | 13% |
| 30 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 9% |
| 30 Oct, 00:06 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 22:03 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 20:38 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 10% |
| 29 Oct, 15:38 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 15:22 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 04:07 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 01:09 UTC | 10% |
| 28 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 11% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 18:29 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 17:23 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 01:07 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 21:33 UTC | 9% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 12:03 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 9% |
| 25 Oct, 19:32 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if the United States agrees to, signs, or accepts a new nuclear deal with Iran before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake general economic resilience for an actual agreement on the nuclear deal.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%