Trump's Venezuela Oil Handling Threatens Constitutional Crisis

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Sept 2026. The Hill published first, on 30 September at 13:30 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Donald Trump — the market puts it at 1%, with $40 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially holds the position of head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET. Otherwise, it resolves to "No." Readers often mistakenly believe that any informal influence or temporary control counts toward resolution.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 16%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump physically travels to and is present in Venezuela between now and January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake this for a policy announcement or diplomatic visit rather than requiring his actual physical presence within the country's borders.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 3%, with $207 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about oil deals for a relevant event, but only statehood matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.