Van Hollen to Challenge Schumer for Senate Majority Leader Hot: $297k traded on its market in 24 hours
Maryland Senator Chris Van Hollen announced he will challenge incumbent Chuck Schumer for the role of Senate majority leader following the Democratic midterm victory.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 81% |
| 13 Nov, 02:31 UTC | 83% |
| 13 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 81% |
| 13 Nov, 01:50 UTC | 88% |
| 13 Nov, 01:15 UTC | 87% |
| 13 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 88% |
| 13 Nov, 00:28 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 23:54 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 23:21 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 22:27 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 21:18 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Nov, 20:44 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Nov, 20:10 UTC | 88% |
| 12 Nov, 19:42 UTC | 88% |
| 12 Nov, 19:22 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 18:48 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 17:53 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 17:18 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 16:56 UTC | 91% |
| 12 Nov, 16:22 UTC | 90% |
| 12 Nov, 15:54 UTC | 89% |
| 12 Nov, 15:27 UTC | 88% |
| 12 Nov, 14:58 UTC | 88% |
| 12 Nov, 14:24 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 13:30 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Nov, 13:09 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 12:27 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Nov, 11:56 UTC | 85% |
| 12 Nov, 11:18 UTC | 84% |
| 12 Nov, 07:56 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 06:49 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 06:15 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 05:55 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 02:53 UTC | 87% |
| 12 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 01:25 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 00:39 UTC | 86% |
| 12 Nov, 00:19 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 22:59 UTC | 89% |
| 11 Nov, 22:25 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 21:44 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 21:02 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 20:15 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 19:20 UTC | 88% |
| 11 Nov, 18:52 UTC | 87% |
| 11 Nov, 18:25 UTC | 85% |
| 11 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 85% |
| 11 Nov, 16:38 UTC | 85% |
| 11 Nov, 15:56 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 14:59 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 13:59 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 12:05 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 09:58 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 09:29 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 07:43 UTC | 82% |
| 11 Nov, 07:15 UTC | 84% |
| 11 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 06:16 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 05:49 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 03:15 UTC | 82% |
| 11 Nov, 02:40 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 02:27 UTC | 82% |
| 11 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 82% |
| 11 Nov, 01:05 UTC | 82% |
| 11 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 83% |
| 11 Nov, 00:04 UTC | 82% |
| 10 Nov, 23:50 UTC | 83% |
| 10 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 81% |
| 10 Nov, 22:40 UTC | 80% |
| 10 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 83% |
| 10 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 21:08 UTC | 87% |
| 10 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 85% |
| 10 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 82% |
| 10 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 87% |
| 10 Nov, 19:27 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 18:45 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 18:18 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Nov, 16:25 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Nov, 15:50 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 15:13 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 14:11 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 13:57 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 13:00 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 12:26 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 11:19 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 07:57 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 06:02 UTC | 88% |
| 10 Nov, 05:16 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 03:41 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 03:08 UTC | 89% |
| 10 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 90% |
| 10 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 91% |
| 10 Nov, 00:26 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Nov, 23:59 UTC | 90% |
| 9 Nov, 23:18 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Nov, 22:44 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Nov, 22:29 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Nov, 21:21 UTC | 87% |
| 9 Nov, 20:18 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Nov, 19:58 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Nov, 19:14 UTC | 84% |
| 9 Nov, 18:47 UTC | 83% |
| 9 Nov, 18:26 UTC | 82% |
| 9 Nov, 17:50 UTC | 85% |
| 9 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 86% |
| 9 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 87% |
| 9 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 89% |
| 9 Nov, 15:58 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 14:50 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 14:29 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 13:19 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 12:37 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 12:10 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 10:17 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 08:43 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 05:43 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 04:56 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 92% |
| 9 Nov, 02:20 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 91% |
| 9 Nov, 01:08 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 23:57 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 22:59 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 22:01 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 21:35 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 21:29 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 20:43 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 20:03 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 19:09 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 17:29 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 16:54 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 16:21 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 15:54 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 15:07 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 14:19 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 13:39 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 12:13 UTC | 89% |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 10:28 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 08:24 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 07:09 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 06:54 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 04:16 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 03:29 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 02:42 UTC | 90% |
| 8 Nov, 02:28 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 91% |
| 8 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 23:55 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 23:29 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 21:56 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 21:29 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 20:48 UTC | 91% |
| 7 Nov, 20:28 UTC | 92% |
| 7 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 18:25 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 17:23 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 16:57 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 16:00 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 15:53 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 14:55 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 14:27 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 13:19 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 12:58 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 12:09 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 11:31 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 09:24 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 08:36 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 08:15 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 07:48 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 06:46 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 05:37 UTC | 90% |
| 7 Nov, 05:02 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 89% |
| 7 Nov, 03:52 UTC | 87% |
| 7 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 87% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Nov, 01:34 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 01:13 UTC | 86% |
| 7 Nov, 00:59 UTC | 88% |
| 7 Nov, 00:09 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 23:47 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 23:26 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 22:28 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 21:59 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 20:46 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 19:54 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 19:25 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 18:56 UTC | 92% |
| 6 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 92% |
| 6 Nov, 17:42 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Nov, 17:27 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Nov, 16:43 UTC | 87% |
| 6 Nov, 16:05 UTC | 88% |
| 6 Nov, 15:51 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 15:05 UTC | 89% |
| 6 Nov, 14:33 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 91% |
| 6 Nov, 13:35 UTC | 90% |
| 6 Nov, 13:20 UTC | 86% |
| 6 Nov, 10:42 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 09:44 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 08:20 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 06:56 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 06:14 UTC | 84% |
| 6 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 04:06 UTC | 85% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 86% |
| 6 Nov, 03:23 UTC | 88% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Chuck Schumer respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 10 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 10 November at 00:01 UTC; Politico Congress followed 74h 02m later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 13 November at 02:24 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), Politico Congress (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Chuck Schumer — the market puts it at 81%, with $297k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2028. The outcome is Yes if Chuck Schumer wins the next Senate Democratic Leader election. The outcome is No if he does not win that specific race. Readers often mistake the linked news story about impeachment for the actual event, but only the official election result matters.
- Chris Van Hollen — the market puts it at 58%, with $16 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if Chris Van Hollen announces a presidential campaign for the 2028 Democratic nomination before January 1, 2028. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake this deadline as applying to his interest in Senate leadership rather than his presidential bid.
- Chuck Schumer — the market puts it at 21%, with $139 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Chuck Schumer secures the Democratic nomination for the 2028 U.S. Senate race in New York. It resolves to No if he does not win that specific party nomination. Readers often mistake general election victory or primary wins in other states for this outcome.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Chuck Schumer at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The HillVan Hollen 'in listening mode' on leadership run90%
- The HillSanders: 'I will support' Van Hollen for majority leader if he runs88%▼3 points since the previous source
- Just In NewsInside Schumer's push to squash a brewing Democratic rebellion87%▼1 points since the previous source
- The HillVan Hollen puts Schumer on notice85%▼2 points since the previous source
- Politico CongressChris Van Hollen says he will run for Senate majority leader88%▲3 points since the previous source
- AxiosChris Van Hollen to challenge Schumer for Senate majority leader88%
- The Guardian USChris Van Hollen to challenge Chuck Schumer for Senate majority leader88%
- CBS News PoliticsVan Hollen will challenge Schumer for Senate majority leader81%▼6 points since the previous source
- Current odds81%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Van Hollen will challenge Schumer for Senate majority leader CBS News Politics ·
- Chris Van Hollen to challenge Chuck Schumer for Senate majority leader The Guardian US ·
- Chris Van Hollen to challenge Schumer for Senate majority leader Axios ·
- Chris Van Hollen says he will run for Senate majority leader Politico Congress ·
- Van Hollen puts Schumer on notice The Hill ·
- Inside Schumer's push to squash a brewing Democratic rebellion Just In News ·
- Sanders: 'I will support' Van Hollen for majority leader if he runs The Hill ·
- Van Hollen 'in listening mode' on leadership run The Hill ·
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Chuck Schumer · Next Senate Democratic Leader? 81% −5
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Chris Van Hollen · Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028? 58% +1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Chuck Schumer · New York Democratic Senate nominee in 2028? 21% −4
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Alert me when the odds move
In this story
- Chris Van Hollen
- Chuck Schumer
- Bernie Sanders