Venezuela
Implied probability 3%+1
24-hour volume$164
Total volume$406k
Liquidity$406k
Resolves20 Jan 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 02:46 UTC | 3% |
| 24 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 2% |
| 24 Sept, 00:16 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 18:06 UTC | 2% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about oil deals for a relevant event, but only statehood matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%