Taiwan drives away 16 Chinese ships in 'hybrid warfare' escalation Hot: $75k traded on its market in 24 hours
Taipei reports that it successfully repelled 16 vessels from China, describing the incident as part of a pattern designed to alter the regional status quo.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 20:57 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 20:18 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 19:58 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 19:25 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 18:10 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 16:45 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 15:43 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 15:08 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 14:46 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 12:41 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 5% |
| 17 Oct, 10:47 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 10:27 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 04:23 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 03:56 UTC | 4% |
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| 17 Oct, 02:11 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 16:39 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 15:52 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 13:38 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 11:58 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 11:09 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 4% |
| 16 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 13:59 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 4% |
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| 15 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 00:51 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 12:26 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 05:15 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 00:48 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 00:21 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 5% |
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| 13 Oct, 22:59 UTC | 5% |
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| 13 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 19:52 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 19:18 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 18:36 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:55 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 06:42 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 06:21 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 05:55 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 05:08 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 04:48 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 02:41 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 02:14 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 01:42 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 00:15 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 23:21 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 22:40 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 21:19 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:50 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 20:29 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 19:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 18:54 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 4% |
| 12 Oct, 17:56 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 17:12 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 15:54 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 15:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 14:48 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 14:21 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 11:52 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 10:53 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 09:53 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 09:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 07:53 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 07:28 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 06:32 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 5% |
| 12 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 18 Oct 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 18 October at 16:25 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? — the market puts it at 4%, with $261 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to "Yes" if Chinese and Taiwanese military forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage do not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Readers often mistake the Taiwan Coast Guard for a military force eligible to trigger this outcome.
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $75k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any part of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline as the end of the day in local time rather than Eastern Time.
- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? — the market puts it at 6%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The market resolves to Yes if China starts a military offensive to control any inhabited part of Taiwan by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. It resolves to No if this does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the day rather than the specific time, or assume uninhabited islands count toward the resolution.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? 4% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? 6% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Taiwan
- China