China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 12:04 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 11:43 UTC | 4% |
| 24 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 14:32 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 14:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 13:52 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 11:06 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:46 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 08:00 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 02:33 UTC | 4% |
| 23 Oct, 00:09 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 21:02 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 19:30 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 18:41 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 17:16 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 16:47 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 13:56 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 12:36 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 11:53 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 03:09 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 02:47 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 4% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 21:48 UTC | 4% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 06:23 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 05:41 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:50 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:48 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:45 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 01:03 UTC | 3% |
| 21 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 21:56 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 20:58 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 18:52 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 16:06 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:33 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 20:13 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 19:59 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 19:10 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 14:55 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 09:33 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 09:26 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 07:08 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 05:24 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 04:18 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 02:31 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 02:04 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 23:58 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 21:52 UTC | 4% |
| 17 Oct, 21:18 UTC | 4% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if Chinese and Taiwanese military forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage do not count toward a "Yes" resolution. Readers often mistake the Taiwan Coast Guard for a military force eligible to trigger this outcome.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 97%
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