Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?
Implied probability 3%
24-hour volume$151
Total volume$441k
Liquidity$65k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 3% |
| 24 Oct, 13:00 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 05:39 UTC | 3% |
| 23 Oct, 00:55 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 23:34 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:57 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 13:04 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 3% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 2% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 19:45 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 4% |
| 18 Oct, 17:24 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 3% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if credible reports confirm China physically blocks foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan's main island for at least 24 hours by the end of 2026. It resolves to No if this physical blockade does not occur, including during military drills or economic sanctions that do not stop ships and planes.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 3%
- No 97%
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