Syria Warns Israel Poses Greatest Threat to Middle East Stability
A UN Security Council meeting on Syria turns into a heated debate between Israel and Turkiye over troops in Syrian territory.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 19:09 UTC | 5% |
| 30 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 10% |
| 30 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 3% |
| 30 Sept, 01:52 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 00:18 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 17:57 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 13:35 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 12:48 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 11:28 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 09:30 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 4% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 4% |
| 28 Sept, 19:18 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 13:20 UTC | 8% |
| 28 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 7% |
| 28 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Sept, 02:25 UTC | 11% |
| 27 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 12% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Sept, 16:48 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 13% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 09:44 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:48 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 17:27 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 14% |
| 24 Sept, 15:18 UTC | 23% |
| 24 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 27% |
| 24 Sept, 13:03 UTC | 30% |
| 24 Sept, 12:42 UTC | 26% |
| 24 Sept, 12:23 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 20% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 19% |
| 23 Sept, 01:06 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 22:54 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 21:12 UTC | 12% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 13% |
| 22 Sept, 19:49 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 18:15 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 17:54 UTC | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 11:27 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 09:36 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 07:09 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 18% |
| 22 Sept, 04:45 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 03:54 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Sept, 03:15 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 17:23 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 13% |
| 21 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 12% |
| 21 Sept, 12:56 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 12:02 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 11:31 UTC | 16% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Sept, 10:44 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Sept, 10:24 UTC | 19% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 21% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 22% |
| 21 Sept, 04:00 UTC | 24% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 22% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 25% |
| 20 Sept, 22:22 UTC | 35% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 29% |
| 20 Sept, 17:18 UTC | 29% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 28% |
| 20 Sept, 13:43 UTC | 30% |
| 20 Sept, 13:24 UTC | 32% |
| 20 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 33% |
| 20 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 31% |
| 20 Sept, 11:55 UTC | 40% |
| 20 Sept, 11:25 UTC | 42% |
| 20 Sept, 10:00 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 09:27 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Sept, 06:11 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Sept, 05:21 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Sept, 04:19 UTC | 11% |
| 20 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 12% |
| 19 Sept, 23:52 UTC | 13% |
| 19 Sept, 23:25 UTC | 13% |
| 19 Sept, 22:36 UTC | 12% |
| 19 Sept, 22:01 UTC | 13% |
| 19 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 17% |
| 19 Sept, 19:42 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Sept, 16:05 UTC | 10% |
| 19 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Sept, 10:52 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Sept, 10:27 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Sept, 09:43 UTC | 10% |
| 19 Sept, 09:05 UTC | 24% |
| 19 Sept, 08:47 UTC | 24% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 25% |
| 18 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Sept, 03:06 UTC | 11% |
| 18 Sept, 02:19 UTC | 12% |
| 17 Sept, 02:19 UTC | 28% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 18 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 18 September at 01:58 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that directly hits Syrian territory by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. It resolves to No if no such qualifying strike occurs within that timeframe or if the munition is intercepted before impact.
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? — the market puts it at 11%, with $706 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Israeli and Turkish forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, by December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if no such violent encounter occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage for a qualifying military clash.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026? No 34d ago
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? 11%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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In this story
- Syria
- Israel
- Turkiye