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Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?

Implied probability 14%+2
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$19k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves30 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Israel military action against Syria by September 30, 2026?
0%50%100%14%19 Sept, 08:09 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now14%
25 Sept, 10:29 UTC14%
25 Sept, 09:44 UTC14%
24 Sept, 17:48 UTC14%
24 Sept, 17:27 UTC14%
24 Sept, 16:26 UTC14%
24 Sept, 15:18 UTC23%
24 Sept, 14:28 UTC27%
24 Sept, 13:03 UTC30%
24 Sept, 12:42 UTC26%
24 Sept, 12:23 UTC24%
24 Sept, 11:55 UTC20%
24 Sept, 11:26 UTC19%
23 Sept, 01:06 UTC12%
23 Sept, 00:22 UTC13%
22 Sept, 22:54 UTC12%
22 Sept, 21:12 UTC12%
22 Sept, 20:57 UTC13%
22 Sept, 19:49 UTC14%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC14%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC14%
22 Sept, 17:54 UTC14%
22 Sept, 13:06 UTC15%
22 Sept, 11:50 UTC16%
22 Sept, 11:27 UTC16%
22 Sept, 09:36 UTC17%
22 Sept, 07:09 UTC18%
22 Sept, 06:57 UTC18%
22 Sept, 04:45 UTC17%
22 Sept, 03:54 UTC17%
22 Sept, 03:15 UTC18%
21 Sept, 21:23 UTC14%
21 Sept, 19:28 UTC13%
21 Sept, 17:23 UTC13%
21 Sept, 15:55 UTC13%
21 Sept, 13:24 UTC12%
21 Sept, 12:56 UTC14%
21 Sept, 12:02 UTC16%
21 Sept, 11:31 UTC16%
21 Sept, 11:23 UTC19%
21 Sept, 10:44 UTC18%
21 Sept, 10:24 UTC19%
21 Sept, 09:46 UTC18%
21 Sept, 08:08 UTC21%
21 Sept, 06:57 UTC22%
21 Sept, 04:00 UTC24%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC22%
20 Sept, 23:24 UTC25%
20 Sept, 22:22 UTC35%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC30%
20 Sept, 18:52 UTC30%
20 Sept, 17:59 UTC29%
20 Sept, 17:18 UTC29%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC31%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC28%
20 Sept, 13:43 UTC30%
20 Sept, 13:24 UTC32%
20 Sept, 12:57 UTC33%
20 Sept, 12:26 UTC31%
20 Sept, 11:55 UTC40%
20 Sept, 11:25 UTC42%
20 Sept, 10:00 UTC11%
20 Sept, 09:27 UTC10%
20 Sept, 06:11 UTC11%
20 Sept, 05:53 UTC10%
20 Sept, 05:21 UTC10%
20 Sept, 04:19 UTC11%
20 Sept, 00:28 UTC12%
19 Sept, 23:52 UTC13%
19 Sept, 23:25 UTC13%
19 Sept, 22:36 UTC12%
19 Sept, 22:01 UTC13%
19 Sept, 21:46 UTC17%
19 Sept, 19:42 UTC11%
19 Sept, 16:05 UTC10%
19 Sept, 12:13 UTC11%
19 Sept, 10:52 UTC11%
19 Sept, 10:27 UTC11%
19 Sept, 09:43 UTC10%
19 Sept, 09:05 UTC24%
19 Sept, 08:47 UTC24%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC25%

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Israel launches an air strike or surface-to-surface missile that directly hits Syrian territory by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Syria Standard Time. It resolves to No if no such qualifying strike occurs within that timeframe or if the munition is intercepted before impact.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 14%
  • No 86%

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