Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$528k
Liquidity$46k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 08:53 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 5% |
| 3 Nov, 23:03 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 20:37 UTC | 5% |
| 2 Nov, 19:33 UTC | 6% |
| 30 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 8% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 21:14 UTC | 12% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 13% |
| 29 Oct, 18:35 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 18:28 UTC | 11% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 9% |
| 29 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 9% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Israeli and Turkish forces engage in direct combat, such as missile strikes or gunfire, by December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if no such violent encounter occurs within that timeframe. Readers often mistake non-violent incidents like warning shots or minor ship damage for a qualifying military clash.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 96%
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