Sebastian Stan Teases Heartbreaking Moments in Avengers: Doomsday
The actor playing Bucky Barnes suggests the upcoming Marvel film will be emotionally difficult without confirming specific plot details or deaths.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 20% |
| 7 Oct, 22:25 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 22% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 7 Oct 2026. Deadline published first, on 7 October at 19:10 UTC; The A.V. Club followed 1h 50m later. The most recent article, from The A.V. Club, appeared on 7 October at 21:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Deadline, The A.V. Club.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? — the market puts it at 20%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jul 2027. The outcome is Yes if Andrew Garfield appears in the film Avengers: Doomsday, and No otherwise. The market resolves based on official casting announcements from Marvel or Warner Bros., credible reporting consensus, or footage from the domestic theatrical cut of the film.
- Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? — the market puts it at 94%, with $85 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Tobey Maguire performs as Spider-Man or is officially announced for that role in Avengers: Doomsday. It resolves to No if he does not appear in the film and no such announcement occurs. Readers often mistake this question for any general appearance by Tobey Maguire rather than specifically his role as Spider-Man.
- Before Dec 18, 2026 — the market puts it at 3%, with $372 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 18 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if the release of Avengers: Doomsday occurs after December 18, 2026. The outcome is No if the film releases on or before that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about Avengers: Endgame for the relevant event instead of focusing on the release date of Avengers: Doomsday.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Andrew Garfield as Spider-Man? 20% −2
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man? 94%
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Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Dec 18, 2026 3% −3
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In this story
- Sebastian Stan
- Bucky Barnes
- Avengers: Doomsday