Tobey Maguire as Spider-Man?
Implied probability 94%
24-hour volume$85
Total volume$92k
Liquidity$92k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 94% |
| 6 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 94% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Tobey Maguire performs as Spider-Man or is officially announced for that role in Avengers: Doomsday. It resolves to No if he does not appear in the film and no such announcement occurs. Readers often mistake this question for any general appearance by Tobey Maguire rather than specifically his role as Spider-Man.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 94%
- No 6%