Sabato’s Crystal Ball Moves Alaska Senate Race to Leans Democrat

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 6 Oct 2026. The Hill News published first, on 6 October at 14:54 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 46% — the market puts it at 92%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola receives at least 46% of the popular vote in the final round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. It resolves to No if she receives less than 46%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election day rather than the date the results are officially certified.
• Mary Peltola, 0-3% — the market puts it at 29%, with $164 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Jun 2027. The outcome is Yes if Mary Peltola’s margin of victory in the 2026 Alaska Senate election is at least 0% but less than 3%. The outcome is No if her margin of victory is 3% or higher, or if she loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign operations for the actual election result.
• At least 50% — the market puts it at 46%, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. It resolves to No if she receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only the certified percentage counts, not early returns or polls.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.