Mary Peltola, 0-3%
Why it moved: −24 points at 05:29 UTC, after The Hill News: Alaska judge denies Peltola campaign request for list of rejected absentee ballots — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 15% |
| 12 Nov, 16:08 UTC | 15% |
| 12 Nov, 15:54 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Nov, 08:03 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 18% |
| 12 Nov, 05:29 UTC | 17% |
| 12 Nov, 04:55 UTC | 41% |
| 12 Nov, 03:48 UTC | 26% |
| 12 Nov, 02:33 UTC | 25% |
| 12 Nov, 01:25 UTC | 16% |
| 12 Nov, 00:11 UTC | 25% |
| 11 Nov, 23:05 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Nov, 18:45 UTC | 24% |
| 11 Nov, 17:15 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 16:17 UTC | 16% |
| 11 Nov, 14:43 UTC | 23% |
| 11 Nov, 13:31 UTC | 18% |
| 11 Nov, 13:17 UTC | 28% |
| 11 Nov, 08:37 UTC | 22% |
| 11 Nov, 06:36 UTC | 19% |
| 11 Nov, 05:01 UTC | 21% |
| 11 Nov, 01:40 UTC | 20% |
| 11 Nov, 01:18 UTC | 14% |
| 11 Nov, 00:17 UTC | 17% |
| 10 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 18% |
| 10 Nov, 22:55 UTC | 19% |
| 10 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 23% |
| 10 Nov, 20:07 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Nov, 13:00 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 12:47 UTC | 27% |
| 10 Nov, 10:13 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Nov, 08:45 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 08:04 UTC | 29% |
| 10 Nov, 07:44 UTC | 25% |
| 10 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 26% |
| 10 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 25% |
| 9 Nov, 22:17 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Nov, 21:01 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Nov, 17:57 UTC | 27% |
| 9 Nov, 17:01 UTC | 28% |
| 9 Nov, 13:33 UTC | 29% |
| 9 Nov, 04:09 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Nov, 16:47 UTC | 29% |
| 8 Nov, 08:04 UTC | 31% |
| 8 Nov, 07:29 UTC | 28% |
| 8 Nov, 00:52 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Nov, 22:29 UTC | 43% |
| 7 Nov, 07:21 UTC | 44% |
| 7 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 44% |
| 7 Nov, 02:24 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 23:04 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 20:17 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 19:47 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 18:19 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 14:56 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 14:26 UTC | 46% |
| 6 Nov, 10:27 UTC | 42% |
| 6 Nov, 07:59 UTC | 45% |
| 6 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 40% |
| 6 Nov, 05:03 UTC | 43% |
| 6 Nov, 03:58 UTC | 44% |
| 6 Nov, 03:01 UTC | 39% |
| 6 Nov, 02:07 UTC | 38% |
| 6 Nov, 01:52 UTC | 33% |
| 6 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 37% |
| 6 Nov, 00:27 UTC | 40% |
| 5 Nov, 23:58 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Nov, 22:47 UTC | 41% |
| 5 Nov, 20:04 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 38% |
| 5 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 39% |
| 5 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 26% |
| 5 Nov, 17:20 UTC | 30% |
| 5 Nov, 16:36 UTC | 35% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The outcome is Yes if Mary Peltola’s margin of victory in the 2026 Alaska Senate election is at least 0% but less than 3%. The outcome is No if her margin of victory is 3% or higher, or if she loses the election. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign operations for the actual election result.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 15%
- No 85%