At least 50%
Why it moved: −3 points at 15:11 UTC, after The Hill: Peltola campaign rips New York Times report on tumultuous operations — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 24 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Sept, 14:48 UTC | 37% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Mary Peltola receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska Senate election. It resolves to No if she receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake the source of truth, but only the certified percentage counts, not early returns or polls.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 34%
- No 66%