Russians Vote in First Elections Since 2022 Amid Questions Over Opposition Challenges
Voters head to the polls for the first time since 2022, raising questions about whether opposition parties can challenge Putin-backed United Russia.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 09:46 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 09:16 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 08:37 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 08:08 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 07:28 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 06:57 UTC | 100% |
| 21 Sept, 05:55 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 05:09 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 04:50 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 02:27 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 01:35 UTC | 98% |
| 21 Sept, 00:38 UTC | 99% |
| 21 Sept, 00:24 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Sept, 23:24 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Sept, 22:05 UTC | 99% |
| 20 Sept, 21:46 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Sept, 20:54 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Sept, 20:03 UTC | 98% |
| 20 Sept, 19:47 UTC | 95% |
| 20 Sept, 19:07 UTC | 96% |
| 20 Sept, 18:52 UTC | 94% |
| 20 Sept, 17:52 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 17:29 UTC | 89% |
| 20 Sept, 16:57 UTC | 91% |
| 20 Sept, 16:29 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Sept, 15:55 UTC | 91% |
| 20 Sept, 15:28 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Sept, 14:49 UTC | 91% |
| 20 Sept, 14:04 UTC | 90% |
| 20 Sept, 13:16 UTC | 88% |
| 20 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 86% |
| 20 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 85% |
| 20 Sept, 11:36 UTC | 82% |
| 20 Sept, 10:56 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 10:08 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 09:35 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 09:21 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 07:05 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 05:00 UTC | 82% |
| 20 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 02:21 UTC | 81% |
| 20 Sept, 01:57 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 80% |
| 20 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 80% |
| 19 Sept, 20:40 UTC | 81% |
| 19 Sept, 19:32 UTC | 82% |
| 19 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 81% |
| 19 Sept, 13:48 UTC | 74% |
| 19 Sept, 13:16 UTC | 74% |
| 19 Sept, 12:46 UTC | 75% |
| 19 Sept, 11:31 UTC | 77% |
| 19 Sept, 11:19 UTC | 76% |
| 19 Sept, 10:33 UTC | 76% |
| 19 Sept, 10:15 UTC | 75% |
| 19 Sept, 09:31 UTC | 75% |
| 19 Sept, 09:25 UTC | 75% |
| 19 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 76% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 76% |
| 17 Sept, 22:50 UTC | 77% |
| 16 Sept, 22:50 UTC | 74% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 17 Sept 2026. Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera published first, on 17 September at 22:19 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? — resolved “Yes” on 21 Sept 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if United Russia wins more seats than any other party in the September 2026 State Duma election. The No outcome applies if another party gains the most seats. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date itself, but the market resolves based on results known by September 30, 2027.
- Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? — resolved “Yes” on 21 Sept 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if United Russia wins the most State Duma seats in the September 2026 election. The No outcome applies if any other party or coalition wins more seats than United Russia. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the September 30, 2027 resolution cutoff, and they may overlook that official Russian government results override credible reporting in case of ambiguity.
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? — resolved “Yes” on 25 Sept 2026. The Yes outcome requires United Russia to receive the most valid votes in every single region where the Central Election Commission separately reports party-list results. The No outcome occurs if United Russia fails to lead in even one of these regions, or if definitive results are not available by September 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 44d ago
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 44d ago
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region? Yes 39d ago
The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Russia
- United Russia
- Putin