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Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Resolved: Yes 44d ago

The market favoured Yes at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$449k
Total volume$2.3M
Liquidity$295k
Resolved30 Sept 2026
How the odds moved · Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%50%100%100%16 Sept, 22:50 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
21 Sept, 08:37 UTC100%
21 Sept, 08:24 UTC100%
21 Sept, 05:55 UTC100%
21 Sept, 01:48 UTC100%
21 Sept, 01:19 UTC100%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC100%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC100%
20 Sept, 18:32 UTC100%
20 Sept, 16:44 UTC100%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC100%
20 Sept, 09:27 UTC100%
20 Sept, 08:57 UTC100%
20 Sept, 07:38 UTC100%
20 Sept, 07:05 UTC100%
20 Sept, 06:58 UTC100%
19 Sept, 14:01 UTC100%
19 Sept, 12:21 UTC100%
19 Sept, 10:52 UTC100%
19 Sept, 10:08 UTC100%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC100%
18 Sept, 00:10 UTC100%
17 Sept, 22:50 UTC100%
16 Sept, 22:50 UTC99%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if United Russia wins the most State Duma seats in the September 2026 election. The No outcome applies if any other party or coalition wins more seats than United Russia. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the September 30, 2027 resolution cutoff, and they may overlook that official Russian government results override credible reporting in case of ambiguity.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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