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Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Resolved: Yes 44d ago

The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$7.8M
Total volume$24.5M
Liquidity$0
Resolved30 Sept 2026

Why it moved: +5 points at 18:52 UTC, after ABC News: Russia's first wartime parliamentary election shows Kremlin dominance all but assured — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
0%50%100%100%16 Sept, 22:50 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
21 Sept, 09:46 UTC100%
21 Sept, 09:16 UTC100%
21 Sept, 08:37 UTC100%
21 Sept, 08:08 UTC100%
21 Sept, 07:28 UTC100%
21 Sept, 06:57 UTC100%
21 Sept, 05:55 UTC99%
21 Sept, 05:09 UTC99%
21 Sept, 04:50 UTC99%
21 Sept, 03:42 UTC99%
21 Sept, 02:55 UTC99%
21 Sept, 02:27 UTC99%
21 Sept, 01:35 UTC98%
21 Sept, 00:38 UTC99%
21 Sept, 00:24 UTC98%
20 Sept, 23:24 UTC99%
20 Sept, 22:05 UTC99%
20 Sept, 21:46 UTC98%
20 Sept, 20:54 UTC98%
20 Sept, 20:03 UTC98%
20 Sept, 19:47 UTC95%
20 Sept, 19:07 UTC96%
20 Sept, 18:52 UTC94%
20 Sept, 17:52 UTC89%
20 Sept, 17:29 UTC89%
20 Sept, 16:57 UTC91%
20 Sept, 16:29 UTC90%
20 Sept, 15:55 UTC91%
20 Sept, 15:28 UTC90%
20 Sept, 14:49 UTC91%
20 Sept, 14:04 UTC90%
20 Sept, 13:16 UTC88%
20 Sept, 12:57 UTC86%
20 Sept, 12:26 UTC85%
20 Sept, 11:36 UTC82%
20 Sept, 10:56 UTC81%
20 Sept, 10:08 UTC80%
20 Sept, 09:35 UTC81%
20 Sept, 09:21 UTC80%
20 Sept, 07:05 UTC81%
20 Sept, 06:25 UTC81%
20 Sept, 05:00 UTC82%
20 Sept, 03:17 UTC81%
20 Sept, 02:54 UTC80%
20 Sept, 02:21 UTC81%
20 Sept, 01:57 UTC80%
20 Sept, 01:24 UTC80%
20 Sept, 00:54 UTC80%
19 Sept, 20:40 UTC81%
19 Sept, 19:32 UTC82%
19 Sept, 19:25 UTC81%
19 Sept, 13:48 UTC74%
19 Sept, 13:16 UTC74%
19 Sept, 12:46 UTC75%
19 Sept, 11:31 UTC77%
19 Sept, 11:19 UTC76%
19 Sept, 10:33 UTC76%
19 Sept, 10:15 UTC75%
19 Sept, 09:31 UTC75%
19 Sept, 09:25 UTC75%
19 Sept, 08:59 UTC76%
19 Sept, 08:09 UTC76%
17 Sept, 22:50 UTC77%
16 Sept, 22:50 UTC74%

What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if United Russia wins more seats than any other party in the September 2026 State Duma election. The No outcome applies if another party gains the most seats. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date itself, but the market resolves based on results known by September 30, 2027.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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