Republicans React to Democratic Gains in Florida Hot: Odds moved 10 points in 24 hours
Republican officials are expressing concern following recent electoral victories by Democrats in the state of Florida.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:34 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 99% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 94% |
| 4 Nov, 00:43 UTC | 95% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 84% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 22:56 UTC | 71% |
| 3 Nov, 22:19 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 21:57 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 20:56 UTC | 62% |
| 3 Nov, 20:27 UTC | 59% |
| 3 Nov, 19:57 UTC | 61% |
| 3 Nov, 19:29 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 18:29 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 17:58 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 17:17 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 16:26 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 15:57 UTC | 65% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 14:53 UTC | 67% |
| 3 Nov, 14:25 UTC | 69% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 70% |
| 3 Nov, 13:25 UTC | 66% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 63% |
| 3 Nov, 07:05 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 06:51 UTC | 64% |
| 3 Nov, 01:54 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Nov, 21:05 UTC | 66% |
| 2 Nov, 19:40 UTC | 65% |
| 2 Nov, 19:26 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Nov, 14:03 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 13:26 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 06:42 UTC | 63% |
| 2 Nov, 06:21 UTC | 62% |
| 2 Nov, 05:53 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Nov, 03:21 UTC | 61% |
| 2 Nov, 02:08 UTC | 64% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 21:19 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 16:29 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 15:16 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 14:45 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 14:09 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 13:54 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 06:43 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 04:43 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 04:29 UTC | 64% |
| 1 Nov, 03:33 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 02:36 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 01:31 UTC | 66% |
| 1 Nov, 00:56 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Nov, 00:21 UTC | 65% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 21:46 UTC | 67% |
| 31 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 20:21 UTC | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 19:46 UTC | 66% |
| 31 Oct, 14:08 UTC | 65% |
| 31 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 13:09 UTC | 63% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 62% |
| 31 Oct, 09:59 UTC | 63% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 62% |
| 31 Oct, 06:01 UTC | 63% |
| 31 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 04:50 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 03:38 UTC | 67% |
| 31 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 68% |
| 31 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 23:48 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 19:06 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 16:54 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 16:10 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 14:38 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 68% |
| 30 Oct, 11:24 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 05:35 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 03:02 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 02:34 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 02:16 UTC | 69% |
| 30 Oct, 01:21 UTC | 70% |
| 30 Oct, 00:42 UTC | 71% |
| 30 Oct, 00:14 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 20:16 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 19:15 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 71% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 70% |
| 29 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 69% |
| 29 Oct, 11:47 UTC | 71% |
| 28 Oct, 23:54 UTC | 72% |
| 28 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 72% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Oct, 22:04 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 74% |
| 28 Oct, 18:38 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 18:22 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 12:12 UTC | 75% |
| 28 Oct, 11:31 UTC | 75% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 4 Nov 2026. politico.com published first, on 4 November at 02:08 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican wins the 2026 Florida governor election and No otherwise. The winner is determined by the party nominee at the time of the election, regardless of their name on the contract. Readers often mistake the linked story about a House seat for the resolution criteria, but this market depends solely on the gubernatorial race results called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
- 4 — the market puts it at 1%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Democrats secure four seats in Florida during the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections. It resolves to No if they win fewer than four seats. Readers often mistake the linked story about a campaign donation for the actual election result.
- Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican nominee wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election or any subsequent run-off. The No outcome applies if a Democratic, independent, or other non-Republican candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date rather than the moment when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? Yes 2h ago
The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Kalshi 4 1% −10
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026? Yes 4h ago
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?