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Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?

Resolved: Yes 3h ago

The market favoured Yes at 65% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$3.0M
Total volume$4.0M
Liquidity$181k
Resolved4 Nov 2026

Why it moved: +20 points at 00:29 UTC, after The Hill: Gilbert wins election to succeed Florida's Wilson in House — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?
0%50%100%100%28 Oct, 11:31 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
4 Nov, 02:34 UTC100%
4 Nov, 02:19 UTC100%
4 Nov, 01:49 UTC99%
4 Nov, 01:27 UTC94%
4 Nov, 00:43 UTC95%
4 Nov, 00:29 UTC84%
3 Nov, 23:53 UTC64%
3 Nov, 23:24 UTC67%
3 Nov, 22:56 UTC71%
3 Nov, 22:19 UTC66%
3 Nov, 21:57 UTC66%
3 Nov, 21:26 UTC65%
3 Nov, 20:56 UTC62%
3 Nov, 20:27 UTC59%
3 Nov, 19:57 UTC61%
3 Nov, 19:29 UTC64%
3 Nov, 18:59 UTC65%
3 Nov, 18:29 UTC65%
3 Nov, 17:58 UTC66%
3 Nov, 17:17 UTC67%
3 Nov, 16:40 UTC66%
3 Nov, 16:26 UTC65%
3 Nov, 15:57 UTC65%
3 Nov, 15:29 UTC66%
3 Nov, 14:53 UTC67%
3 Nov, 14:25 UTC69%
3 Nov, 13:55 UTC70%
3 Nov, 13:25 UTC66%
3 Nov, 12:28 UTC63%
3 Nov, 11:52 UTC63%
3 Nov, 07:05 UTC64%
3 Nov, 06:51 UTC64%
3 Nov, 01:54 UTC65%
2 Nov, 21:05 UTC66%
2 Nov, 19:40 UTC65%
2 Nov, 19:26 UTC64%
2 Nov, 14:03 UTC63%
2 Nov, 13:26 UTC62%
2 Nov, 06:42 UTC63%
2 Nov, 06:21 UTC62%
2 Nov, 05:53 UTC61%
2 Nov, 03:21 UTC61%
2 Nov, 02:08 UTC64%
2 Nov, 01:53 UTC65%
1 Nov, 21:19 UTC64%
1 Nov, 17:35 UTC65%
1 Nov, 16:29 UTC66%
1 Nov, 15:16 UTC65%
1 Nov, 14:45 UTC65%
1 Nov, 14:09 UTC65%
1 Nov, 13:54 UTC65%
1 Nov, 06:43 UTC66%
1 Nov, 04:43 UTC64%
1 Nov, 04:29 UTC64%
1 Nov, 03:33 UTC66%
1 Nov, 02:36 UTC65%
1 Nov, 01:31 UTC66%
1 Nov, 00:56 UTC65%
1 Nov, 00:21 UTC65%
31 Oct, 22:21 UTC66%
31 Oct, 21:46 UTC67%
31 Oct, 21:17 UTC66%
31 Oct, 20:21 UTC66%
31 Oct, 19:46 UTC66%
31 Oct, 14:08 UTC65%
31 Oct, 13:46 UTC64%
31 Oct, 13:09 UTC63%
31 Oct, 12:54 UTC62%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC63%
31 Oct, 06:57 UTC62%
31 Oct, 06:01 UTC63%
31 Oct, 05:26 UTC64%
31 Oct, 04:50 UTC64%
31 Oct, 03:38 UTC67%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC68%
31 Oct, 02:19 UTC68%
30 Oct, 23:48 UTC69%
30 Oct, 20:22 UTC68%
30 Oct, 19:06 UTC69%
30 Oct, 17:49 UTC68%
30 Oct, 16:54 UTC68%
30 Oct, 16:10 UTC68%
30 Oct, 14:38 UTC68%
30 Oct, 11:59 UTC68%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC69%
30 Oct, 05:35 UTC70%
30 Oct, 03:02 UTC71%
30 Oct, 02:34 UTC70%
30 Oct, 02:16 UTC69%
30 Oct, 01:21 UTC70%
30 Oct, 00:42 UTC71%
30 Oct, 00:14 UTC70%
29 Oct, 20:16 UTC70%
29 Oct, 19:50 UTC70%
29 Oct, 19:15 UTC70%
29 Oct, 18:06 UTC71%
29 Oct, 17:11 UTC70%
29 Oct, 14:07 UTC71%
29 Oct, 12:52 UTC70%
29 Oct, 12:18 UTC69%
29 Oct, 11:47 UTC71%
28 Oct, 23:54 UTC72%
28 Oct, 23:19 UTC72%
28 Oct, 22:46 UTC73%
28 Oct, 22:04 UTC75%
28 Oct, 21:57 UTC74%
28 Oct, 19:33 UTC75%
28 Oct, 19:26 UTC74%
28 Oct, 18:38 UTC75%
28 Oct, 18:22 UTC75%
28 Oct, 12:12 UTC75%
28 Oct, 11:31 UTC75%

What counts

The market resolves to Yes if a Republican wins the 2026 Florida governor election and No otherwise. The winner is determined by the party nominee at the time of the election, regardless of their name on the contract. Readers often mistake the linked story about a House seat for the resolution criteria, but this market depends solely on the gubernatorial race results called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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