Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 87% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$607k
Total volume$1.1M
Liquidity$276k
Resolved4 Nov 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 02:19 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 100% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 98% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 93% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 94% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 20:34 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 18:13 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 90% |
| 3 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 91% |
| 3 Nov, 15:14 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 14:39 UTC | 89% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 88% |
| 3 Nov, 13:55 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 12:28 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 08:39 UTC | 86% |
| 3 Nov, 08:25 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 06:01 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 05:25 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 04:57 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 04:22 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 02:01 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 01:39 UTC | 87% |
| 3 Nov, 00:55 UTC | 87% |
| 2 Nov, 04:40 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 89% |
| 2 Nov, 01:53 UTC | 88% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 90% |
| 1 Nov, 07:04 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Nov, 05:11 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Nov, 04:50 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 91% |
| 1 Nov, 03:04 UTC | 92% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 19:17 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 17:06 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 16:58 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 12:25 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 11:50 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 10:13 UTC | 90% |
| 31 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 06:57 UTC | 90% |
| 31 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 05:26 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 03:08 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 90% |
| 31 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 91% |
| 31 Oct, 00:38 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 23:41 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Oct, 23:23 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 91% |
| 30 Oct, 21:31 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 21:24 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 17:01 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 11:59 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 08:02 UTC | 90% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 91% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 90% |
| 29 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 90% |
| 29 Oct, 12:52 UTC | 91% |
| 29 Oct, 09:19 UTC | 92% |
| 29 Oct, 07:26 UTC | 91% |
| 29 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 92% |
| 28 Oct, 16:59 UTC | 91% |
| 28 Oct, 16:24 UTC | 91% |
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican nominee wins the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate special election or any subsequent run-off. The No outcome applies if a Democratic, independent, or other non-Republican candidate wins. Readers often mistake the deadline for the final certification date rather than the moment when the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same candidate.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
View this market on Polymarket →