EU Ministers Seek December Deal on ECB Presidency Succession Hot: Odds moved 36 points in 24 hours

The story so far

6 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 6 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 6 November at 14:00 UTC; Latest articles followed 40h 55m later. The most recent article, from News Feed, appeared on 12 November at 05:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Latest articles, Deutsche Welle, Quartz, Cointelegraph.com News.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Pablo Hernández de Cos — the market puts it at 87%, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pablo Hernández de Cos officially becomes President of the European Central Bank before January 1, 2028. It resolves to No if he does not hold that position by the deadline or if someone else held it first after the market launched. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the official start date, but only formal assumption of office counts.
• Will Christine Lagarde advance to the second round of the next French presidential election? — the market puts it at 8%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 19 Apr 2027. The outcome is Yes if Christine Lagarde advances to the second round or wins outright in the first round of the next French presidential election. The market resolves to No if she fails to advance, if no election occurs, or if results are not known by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET.
• Christine Lagarde — the market puts it at 6%, with $1k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 30 May 2028. The outcome is Yes if Christine Lagarde wins the next French presidential election. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific election. Readers often mistake the linked story about her stepping down as ECB President for the resolution condition, but only the French presidential election result matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.