Pedro Sánchez Loses Vote on Spanish Housing Reform
The parliamentary setback could push the premier to call early elections.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 14% |
| 22 Sept, 19:21 UTC | 14% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 2 Oct 2026. News Feed published first, on 2 October at 14:57 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Pedro Sánchez — the market puts it at 14%, closing 22 Aug 2028. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez becomes Prime Minister of Spain after the next general election and satisfies all constitutional requirements before August 22, 2028. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final resolution cutoff.
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? — the market puts it at 15%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Apr 2028. For the "Yes" outcome, Pedro Sánchez must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The "No" outcome occurs if another individual assumes the role or if no new Prime Minister is officially confirmed by that deadline.
- Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? — the market puts it at 12%, with $254 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez permanently leaves his office as Prime Minister before December 31, 2026. Temporary roles, caretaker positions, or mere announcements of resignation do not count toward this outcome. Readers often mistake a scheduled departure or temporary suspension for permanent removal.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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Markets on this story
- Kalshi Pedro Sánchez 14%
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- Polymarket Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? 15% −2
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- Polymarket Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? 12% +1
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In this story
- Pedro Sánchez
- Spanish