Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
Implied probability 1%−1
24-hour volume$1k
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$26k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 16:30 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 15:49 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Sept, 15:29 UTC | 1% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez permanently leaves his office as Prime Minister before December 31, 2026. Temporary roles, caretaker positions, or mere announcements of resignation do not count toward this outcome. Readers often mistake a scheduled departure or temporary suspension for permanent removal.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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