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Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?

Implied probability 5%−1
24-hour volume$248
Total volume$80k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
How the odds moved · Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027?
0%50%100%5%25 Oct, 21:21 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now5%
1 Nov, 19:45 UTC5%
1 Nov, 18:33 UTC5%
1 Nov, 18:11 UTC4%
1 Nov, 17:56 UTC5%
1 Nov, 17:27 UTC5%
1 Nov, 13:46 UTC5%
1 Nov, 13:24 UTC5%
1 Nov, 09:42 UTC5%
1 Nov, 09:22 UTC5%
1 Nov, 08:39 UTC5%
1 Nov, 07:52 UTC4%
1 Nov, 06:36 UTC4%
1 Nov, 05:47 UTC5%
1 Nov, 04:57 UTC5%
1 Nov, 03:33 UTC5%
1 Nov, 02:43 UTC5%
1 Nov, 01:52 UTC5%
1 Nov, 01:24 UTC5%
1 Nov, 00:49 UTC5%
1 Nov, 00:28 UTC5%
31 Oct, 21:24 UTC5%
31 Oct, 20:57 UTC6%
31 Oct, 20:28 UTC5%
31 Oct, 19:59 UTC6%
31 Oct, 19:02 UTC4%
31 Oct, 18:55 UTC4%
31 Oct, 18:27 UTC5%
31 Oct, 17:57 UTC7%
31 Oct, 17:21 UTC10%
31 Oct, 16:58 UTC7%
31 Oct, 16:29 UTC7%
31 Oct, 15:59 UTC8%
31 Oct, 15:22 UTC9%
31 Oct, 14:53 UTC7%
31 Oct, 14:08 UTC7%
31 Oct, 13:53 UTC10%
31 Oct, 13:16 UTC11%
31 Oct, 12:54 UTC11%
31 Oct, 12:25 UTC12%
31 Oct, 11:57 UTC14%
31 Oct, 11:28 UTC15%
31 Oct, 10:59 UTC15%
31 Oct, 10:06 UTC15%
31 Oct, 09:59 UTC15%
31 Oct, 09:24 UTC16%
31 Oct, 08:56 UTC15%
31 Oct, 08:28 UTC15%
31 Oct, 07:53 UTC7%
31 Oct, 07:25 UTC5%
31 Oct, 04:14 UTC4%
31 Oct, 03:52 UTC4%
31 Oct, 03:24 UTC5%
31 Oct, 02:54 UTC5%
31 Oct, 01:25 UTC5%
31 Oct, 00:57 UTC5%
31 Oct, 00:24 UTC5%
30 Oct, 23:48 UTC5%
30 Oct, 23:23 UTC5%
30 Oct, 22:47 UTC6%
30 Oct, 22:26 UTC6%
30 Oct, 21:53 UTC7%
30 Oct, 18:03 UTC7%
30 Oct, 17:20 UTC7%
30 Oct, 16:54 UTC7%
30 Oct, 16:18 UTC7%
30 Oct, 15:43 UTC7%
30 Oct, 15:21 UTC7%
30 Oct, 14:58 UTC7%
30 Oct, 14:16 UTC7%
30 Oct, 13:58 UTC7%
30 Oct, 11:31 UTC7%
30 Oct, 11:24 UTC7%
30 Oct, 10:50 UTC7%
30 Oct, 10:20 UTC7%
30 Oct, 09:58 UTC7%
30 Oct, 09:16 UTC7%
30 Oct, 08:41 UTC7%
30 Oct, 08:22 UTC7%
30 Oct, 07:55 UTC8%
30 Oct, 07:28 UTC8%
30 Oct, 06:42 UTC7%
30 Oct, 06:28 UTC7%
30 Oct, 05:49 UTC7%
30 Oct, 05:28 UTC7%
30 Oct, 04:43 UTC8%
30 Oct, 04:29 UTC8%
30 Oct, 03:54 UTC9%
30 Oct, 03:23 UTC9%
30 Oct, 02:55 UTC9%
30 Oct, 02:16 UTC9%
30 Oct, 01:55 UTC9%
30 Oct, 01:28 UTC9%
30 Oct, 00:56 UTC9%
30 Oct, 00:28 UTC9%
29 Oct, 23:47 UTC9%
29 Oct, 23:26 UTC9%
29 Oct, 22:57 UTC9%
29 Oct, 22:24 UTC9%
29 Oct, 21:55 UTC9%
29 Oct, 21:14 UTC8%
29 Oct, 20:31 UTC9%
29 Oct, 20:24 UTC9%
29 Oct, 19:57 UTC9%
29 Oct, 19:29 UTC9%
29 Oct, 18:06 UTC8%
29 Oct, 17:46 UTC8%
29 Oct, 17:26 UTC8%
29 Oct, 16:57 UTC8%
29 Oct, 16:15 UTC8%
29 Oct, 15:53 UTC8%
29 Oct, 15:22 UTC8%
29 Oct, 14:40 UTC8%
29 Oct, 13:29 UTC8%
29 Oct, 12:52 UTC8%
29 Oct, 12:25 UTC8%
29 Oct, 11:56 UTC8%
29 Oct, 11:20 UTC8%
29 Oct, 10:58 UTC8%
29 Oct, 10:26 UTC8%
29 Oct, 09:55 UTC8%
29 Oct, 09:26 UTC7%
29 Oct, 08:50 UTC7%
29 Oct, 05:51 UTC7%
29 Oct, 05:29 UTC7%
29 Oct, 03:35 UTC7%
29 Oct, 03:00 UTC7%
29 Oct, 02:53 UTC7%
29 Oct, 02:20 UTC7%
29 Oct, 01:59 UTC7%
29 Oct, 01:18 UTC7%
28 Oct, 23:19 UTC7%
28 Oct, 22:04 UTC7%
28 Oct, 20:37 UTC7%
28 Oct, 20:02 UTC7%
28 Oct, 19:26 UTC6%
28 Oct, 18:14 UTC6%
28 Oct, 17:38 UTC6%
28 Oct, 17:16 UTC6%
28 Oct, 16:24 UTC6%
28 Oct, 15:47 UTC6%
28 Oct, 15:26 UTC6%
28 Oct, 14:49 UTC6%
28 Oct, 14:14 UTC6%
28 Oct, 13:49 UTC6%
28 Oct, 13:16 UTC7%
28 Oct, 12:57 UTC7%
28 Oct, 12:29 UTC8%
28 Oct, 11:45 UTC6%
28 Oct, 11:17 UTC5%
28 Oct, 10:23 UTC6%
28 Oct, 09:55 UTC6%
28 Oct, 09:10 UTC7%
28 Oct, 08:56 UTC8%
28 Oct, 08:29 UTC8%
28 Oct, 07:49 UTC7%
28 Oct, 07:29 UTC7%
28 Oct, 06:43 UTC7%
28 Oct, 06:27 UTC7%
28 Oct, 05:58 UTC7%
28 Oct, 05:26 UTC7%
28 Oct, 04:56 UTC6%
28 Oct, 04:17 UTC6%
28 Oct, 03:56 UTC6%
28 Oct, 03:22 UTC6%
28 Oct, 02:37 UTC6%
28 Oct, 02:23 UTC6%
28 Oct, 01:49 UTC6%
28 Oct, 01:21 UTC6%
27 Oct, 22:58 UTC8%
27 Oct, 22:23 UTC7%
27 Oct, 21:56 UTC7%
27 Oct, 21:12 UTC5%
27 Oct, 20:10 UTC5%
27 Oct, 19:55 UTC5%
27 Oct, 14:14 UTC4%
27 Oct, 13:48 UTC4%
27 Oct, 13:04 UTC4%
27 Oct, 12:33 UTC4%
27 Oct, 09:16 UTC4%
27 Oct, 08:54 UTC4%
27 Oct, 08:27 UTC4%
27 Oct, 07:57 UTC4%
27 Oct, 07:10 UTC4%
27 Oct, 06:20 UTC4%
27 Oct, 05:34 UTC4%
27 Oct, 00:52 UTC4%
26 Oct, 23:31 UTC4%
26 Oct, 23:24 UTC4%
26 Oct, 22:56 UTC4%
26 Oct, 22:22 UTC5%
26 Oct, 21:53 UTC6%
26 Oct, 21:25 UTC6%
26 Oct, 20:32 UTC6%
26 Oct, 20:05 UTC6%
26 Oct, 19:44 UTC6%
26 Oct, 19:23 UTC6%
26 Oct, 18:48 UTC5%
26 Oct, 18:26 UTC6%
26 Oct, 17:45 UTC5%
26 Oct, 17:28 UTC6%
26 Oct, 16:59 UTC7%
26 Oct, 16:24 UTC6%
26 Oct, 15:54 UTC4%
26 Oct, 15:17 UTC3%
26 Oct, 14:55 UTC3%
26 Oct, 14:23 UTC3%
26 Oct, 13:55 UTC2%
26 Oct, 12:39 UTC3%
26 Oct, 11:56 UTC3%
26 Oct, 10:56 UTC3%
26 Oct, 08:23 UTC4%
26 Oct, 07:44 UTC4%
26 Oct, 07:24 UTC4%
26 Oct, 05:53 UTC7%
26 Oct, 05:19 UTC7%
26 Oct, 04:57 UTC7%
26 Oct, 04:29 UTC7%
26 Oct, 02:13 UTC7%
26 Oct, 01:27 UTC7%
26 Oct, 00:54 UTC7%
25 Oct, 23:35 UTC7%
25 Oct, 23:25 UTC7%
25 Oct, 22:45 UTC7%
25 Oct, 21:43 UTC7%
25 Oct, 21:21 UTC7%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Does the market have this right?

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Pedro Sánchez permanently leaves his office as Prime Minister before December 31, 2026. Temporary roles, caretaker positions, or mere announcements of resignation do not count toward this outcome. Readers often mistake a scheduled departure or temporary suspension for permanent removal.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 5%
  • No 95%

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