Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?
Why it moved: +6 points at 15:23 UTC, after France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines: Spanish lawmakers vote down affordable housing bills in blow to Sanchez’s government — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 18% |
| 3 Oct, 13:37 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 17% |
| 3 Oct, 08:48 UTC | 15% |
| 3 Oct, 07:44 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 07:06 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 06:33 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 06:19 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 03:25 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 13% |
| 3 Oct, 02:09 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 01:35 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 01:28 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 00:56 UTC | 14% |
| 3 Oct, 00:29 UTC | 14% |
| 2 Oct, 23:39 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Oct, 22:50 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 11% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 13% |
| 2 Oct, 20:52 UTC | 17% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 20% |
| 2 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 18:55 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 17:59 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 17:11 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 16:57 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 16:23 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 22% |
| 2 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 22% |
| 1 Oct, 15:02 UTC | 16% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
For the "Yes" outcome, Pedro Sánchez must receive a vote of confidence from the Congress of Deputies and be formally sworn in as Prime Minister by March 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM ET. The "No" outcome occurs if another individual assumes the role or if no new Prime Minister is officially confirmed by that deadline.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 18%
- No 82%
Trade this market on Polymarket →