OpenAI Releases 722 Mathematical Discoveries
The company has published a massive batch of mathematical papers, surprising the academic community with the volume of its output.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 11:34 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 68% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 66% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 67% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 66% |
| 6 Oct, 12:34 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 65% |
| 6 Oct, 10:03 UTC | 64% |
| 6 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 63% |
| 5 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 62% |
| 5 Oct, 21:54 UTC | 61% |
| 5 Oct, 19:21 UTC | 60% |
| 5 Oct, 00:05 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 17:20 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 12:13 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 11:49 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 11:04 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 10:57 UTC | 51% |
| 4 Oct, 07:57 UTC | 52% |
| 4 Oct, 06:27 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 05:17 UTC | 55% |
| 4 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 54% |
| 4 Oct, 03:16 UTC | 50% |
| 4 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 56% |
| 4 Oct, 00:01 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 23:16 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Oct, 22:10 UTC | 46% |
| 3 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 21:10 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Oct, 16:00 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 14:13 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 13:23 UTC | 54% |
| 3 Oct, 12:43 UTC | 55% |
| 3 Oct, 12:15 UTC | 48% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 09:30 UTC | 60% |
| 2 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 08:09 UTC | 59% |
| 2 Oct, 07:42 UTC | 58% |
| 2 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 57% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 54% |
| 2 Oct, 00:43 UTC | 55% |
| 2 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 17:38 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 65% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 61% |
| 1 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 60% |
| 1 Oct, 11:45 UTC | 57% |
| 1 Oct, 11:26 UTC | 56% |
| 1 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 54% |
| 1 Oct, 08:55 UTC | 51% |
| 1 Oct, 08:19 UTC | 42% |
| 1 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 50% |
| 1 Oct, 07:09 UTC | 41% |
| 1 Oct, 06:29 UTC | 41% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Hacker News published first, on 6 October at 23:42 UTC; New Scientist followed 10h 47m later. The most recent article, from Quartz, appeared on 7 October at 11:20 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Hacker News, New Scientist, Quartz.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 66%, with $15k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as a solver; partial results or announcements crediting only external researchers do not count.
- Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 11%, with $91 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A tie for first place counts as a win. Readers often mistake the deadline for midnight UTC or assume any general AI ranking qualifies instead of the specific Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? — the market puts it at 16%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces the creation of artificial general intelligence by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the completion date of the technology.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Hacker NewsOpenAI releases 722 math manuscripts66%
- New ScientistOpenAI announces 722 mathematical discoveries in one go68%▲2 points since the previous source
- QuartzOpenAI released 372 groups of math results on GitHub after its Millennium Prize breakthrough68%
- Current odds66%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? 66% +3
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 11% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 16% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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