NewsMarkets

AI

OpenAI Releases 722 Mathematical Discoveries

The company has published a massive batch of mathematical papers, surprising the academic community with the volume of its output.

3 publishers · 3 articles · first seen 6 Oct 2026 · updated 36m ago

The odds

How the odds moved · Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?
0%50%100%66%1 Oct, 06:29 UTCnowQuartz: OpenAI released 372 groups of math results on GitHub after its Millennium Prize breakthrough · 7 Oct, 11:20 UTCNew Scientist: OpenAI announces 722 mathematical discoveries in one go · 7 Oct, 10:29 UTCHacker News: OpenAI releases 722 math manuscripts · 6 Oct, 23:42 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now66%
7 Oct, 11:34 UTC66%
7 Oct, 08:40 UTC68%
7 Oct, 07:20 UTC66%
7 Oct, 00:35 UTC67%
6 Oct, 20:30 UTC66%
6 Oct, 12:34 UTC64%
6 Oct, 11:13 UTC65%
6 Oct, 10:03 UTC64%
6 Oct, 09:55 UTC63%
5 Oct, 23:16 UTC62%
5 Oct, 21:54 UTC61%
5 Oct, 19:21 UTC60%
5 Oct, 00:05 UTC51%
4 Oct, 17:20 UTC52%
4 Oct, 16:48 UTC51%
4 Oct, 16:25 UTC52%
4 Oct, 12:13 UTC56%
4 Oct, 11:49 UTC55%
4 Oct, 11:04 UTC54%
4 Oct, 10:57 UTC51%
4 Oct, 07:57 UTC52%
4 Oct, 06:27 UTC56%
4 Oct, 05:17 UTC55%
4 Oct, 03:47 UTC54%
4 Oct, 03:16 UTC50%
4 Oct, 01:20 UTC56%
4 Oct, 00:01 UTC54%
3 Oct, 23:16 UTC51%
3 Oct, 22:56 UTC49%
3 Oct, 22:10 UTC46%
3 Oct, 21:57 UTC47%
3 Oct, 21:10 UTC43%
3 Oct, 20:56 UTC47%
3 Oct, 16:00 UTC54%
3 Oct, 14:34 UTC55%
3 Oct, 14:13 UTC54%
3 Oct, 13:30 UTC55%
3 Oct, 13:23 UTC54%
3 Oct, 12:43 UTC55%
3 Oct, 12:15 UTC48%
2 Oct, 12:58 UTC59%
2 Oct, 12:08 UTC60%
2 Oct, 11:15 UTC59%
2 Oct, 09:30 UTC60%
2 Oct, 09:23 UTC59%
2 Oct, 08:09 UTC59%
2 Oct, 07:42 UTC58%
2 Oct, 06:37 UTC57%
2 Oct, 05:12 UTC54%
2 Oct, 01:20 UTC54%
2 Oct, 00:43 UTC55%
2 Oct, 00:23 UTC56%
1 Oct, 18:43 UTC61%
1 Oct, 17:38 UTC65%
1 Oct, 17:14 UTC65%
1 Oct, 13:21 UTC61%
1 Oct, 12:38 UTC60%
1 Oct, 12:24 UTC60%
1 Oct, 11:45 UTC57%
1 Oct, 11:26 UTC56%
1 Oct, 09:23 UTC54%
1 Oct, 08:55 UTC51%
1 Oct, 08:19 UTC42%
1 Oct, 07:48 UTC50%
1 Oct, 07:09 UTC41%
1 Oct, 06:29 UTC41%

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 6 Oct 2026. Hacker News published first, on 6 October at 23:42 UTC; New Scientist followed 10h 47m later. The most recent article, from Quartz, appeared on 7 October at 11:20 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Hacker News, New Scientist, Quartz.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? — the market puts it at 66%, with $15k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2028. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as a solver; partial results or announcements crediting only external researchers do not count.
  • Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 11%, with $91 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI holds the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. A tie for first place counts as a win. Readers often mistake the deadline for midnight UTC or assume any general AI ranking qualifies instead of the specific Chatbot Arena leaderboard.
  • OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? — the market puts it at 16%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces the creation of artificial general intelligence by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the completion date of the technology.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Hacker NewsOpenAI releases 722 math manuscripts66%
  2. New ScientistOpenAI announces 722 mathematical discoveries in one go68%▲2 points since the previous source
  3. QuartzOpenAI released 372 groups of math results on GitHub after its Millennium Prize breakthrough68%
  4. Current odds66%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. OpenAI released 372 groups of math results on GitHub after its Millennium Prize breakthrough Quartz
  2. OpenAI announces 722 mathematical discoveries in one go New Scientist
  3. OpenAI releases 722 math manuscripts Hacker News

Markets on this story

  • Polymarket Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? 66% +3 $15k 24hends 1 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? 11% +2 $91 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? 16% −1 $3k 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.