Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 13:19 UTC | 21% |
| 7 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 25% |
| 7 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 26% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 28% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 27% |
| 7 Oct, 00:35 UTC | 31% |
| 6 Oct, 20:30 UTC | 27% |
| 6 Oct, 14:37 UTC | 22% |
| 6 Oct, 06:59 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Oct, 21:30 UTC | 20% |
| 3 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 11:54 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Oct, 07:51 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 15:09 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 23% |
| 2 Oct, 11:42 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Oct, 11:15 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 18:43 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 17:14 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 13:30 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Oct, 13:21 UTC | 28% |
| 1 Oct, 12:58 UTC | 27% |
| 30 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 25% |
| 30 Sept, 15:08 UTC | 26% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 26% |
Your call. How does this end?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has fully solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as the solver; partial results, progress reports, or announcements crediting only outside researchers do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 80%
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