Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$2k
Total volume$425k
Liquidity$47k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 12:11 UTC | 1% |
| 24 Oct, 10:37 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 19:57 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 12:22 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 11:48 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 10:24 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 09:34 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 08:39 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 06:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 0% |
| 23 Oct, 01:18 UTC | 1% |
| 23 Oct, 00:02 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 15:28 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 12:29 UTC | 1% |
| 22 Oct, 00:52 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 18:34 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 15:17 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 10:39 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 08:44 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 05:20 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 04:04 UTC | 1% |
| 21 Oct, 01:52 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 22:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 21:20 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 17:39 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 16:20 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 15:01 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 12:46 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 07:19 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 01:20 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 00:37 UTC | 0% |
| 18 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 12:00 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 11:19 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 06:16 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 05:11 UTC | 1% |
| 18 Oct, 03:57 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 23:10 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 17:35 UTC | 1% |
| 17 Oct, 12:27 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves by checking the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET. OpenAI wins if its model holds the highest rank among eligible models at that specific time and source. Readers often mistake the check date for the end of the month or overlook that auto-evaluated models are excluded from the ranking.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
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