Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 21%+1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$51k
Liquidity$51k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 21% |
| 27 Oct, 02:02 UTC | 19% |
| 26 Oct, 23:31 UTC | 16% |
| 26 Oct, 23:03 UTC | 15% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 20:40 UTC | 9% |
| 26 Oct, 19:51 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 19:23 UTC | 10% |
| 26 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 14% |
| 26 Oct, 18:26 UTC | 13% |
| 26 Oct, 11:56 UTC | 12% |
| 26 Oct, 01:34 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 24% |
| 24 Oct, 17:54 UTC | 25% |
| 24 Oct, 03:42 UTC | 24% |
| 22 Oct, 20:20 UTC | 23% |
| 22 Oct, 13:27 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 03:45 UTC | 19% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if OpenAI or its direct collaborators announce a complete solution to one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if no such announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked news story about math papers as sufficient for resolution, but only an official announcement of a complete solution counts.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 79%