NewsMarkets

Tech

OpenAI Forms Math Advisory Group Amid Navier-Stokes Controversy

OpenAI establishes a math advisory group as it claims progress on the Hodge Conjecture, following backlash over its disputed Navier-Stokes solution.

8 publishers · 14 articles · first seen 15 Sept 2026 · updated 39d ago

Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made

This story has stopped developing; this page is its permanent record. More from that day

The odds

How the odds moved · Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
0%50%100%2%21 Sept, 11:49 UTCnowTechCrunch: OpenAI forms math advisory group as its AI resolves more than 100 open problems · 21 Sept, 20:15 UTCScientific American: Mathematicians use AI to find mysterious symmetries, solving decades-old problem · 22 Sept, 11:00 UTCScientific American: Did OpenAI solve the wrong Navier-Stokes problem? · 21 Sept, 16:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 11 more published before price tracking began

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now2%
29 Sept, 21:40 UTC2%
29 Sept, 21:17 UTC2%
29 Sept, 19:25 UTC2%
29 Sept, 18:54 UTC2%
27 Sept, 21:43 UTC2%
26 Sept, 12:22 UTC2%
26 Sept, 03:53 UTC2%
23 Sept, 13:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 12:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 12:23 UTC2%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC2%
23 Sept, 10:42 UTC2%
23 Sept, 10:24 UTC2%
23 Sept, 09:06 UTC2%
23 Sept, 08:53 UTC2%
23 Sept, 07:51 UTC2%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC2%
23 Sept, 06:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 06:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 05:55 UTC2%
23 Sept, 05:13 UTC2%
23 Sept, 04:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 04:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 03:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 03:22 UTC2%
23 Sept, 02:45 UTC2%
23 Sept, 02:26 UTC2%
23 Sept, 01:40 UTC2%
23 Sept, 01:21 UTC2%
23 Sept, 00:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 00:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 22:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:06 UTC3%
22 Sept, 20:50 UTC2%
22 Sept, 20:28 UTC3%
22 Sept, 19:56 UTC2%
22 Sept, 19:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC2%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC3%
22 Sept, 16:09 UTC2%
22 Sept, 15:40 UTC2%
22 Sept, 15:23 UTC2%
22 Sept, 14:57 UTC2%
22 Sept, 14:19 UTC2%
22 Sept, 13:50 UTC2%
22 Sept, 12:11 UTC2%
22 Sept, 11:50 UTC2%
21 Sept, 11:49 UTC1%

The story so far

8 publishers have covered this in 14 articles since 15 Sept 2026. Latest News from Science Magazine published first, on 15 September at 02:45 UTC; Scientific American followed 13h 15m later. The most recent article, from Scientific American, appeared on 22 September at 11:00 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Latest News from Science Magazine (major outlet), Nature (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), TechCrunch (major outlet), Scientific American, theinformation.com, decrypt.co.

3 prediction markets price this story:

  • Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? — the market puts it at 2%, closing 1 Jan 2028. The Yes outcome occurs if an eligible AI lab announces a full solution to P versus NP by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such announcement is made by that deadline or if another qualifying problem is solved first. Readers often mistake progress reports for final solutions or assume the Navier-Stokes controversy affects this specific market.
  • Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as the solver; reports of progress, partial results, or solutions credited to outside researchers do not count.
  • Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $41 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to four or more distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if fewer than four such announcements occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that progress toward a solution counts, but only formal announcements declaring the problem solved qualify.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. Latest News from Science MagazineOpenAI breakthrough triggers ‘existential crisis’ in math—
  2. Scientific AmericanWhich million-dollar math problem could AI solve next?—
  3. NatureOpenAI maths bombshell sparks debate about who gets credit in age of AI—
  4. Scientific AmericanOpenAI cracks the hidden math that keeps your texts from turning to gibberish—
  5. News FeedWhat a maths fracas tells us about AI and innovation—
  6. The Guardian BusinessOpen AI and the million-dollar maths problem - video—
  7. theinformation.comOpenAI Is Close To Solving Another Millennium Prize Math Problem—
  8. decrypt.coOpenAI Says It's Made Progress on a Second $1 Million Math Problem—
  9. NatureAI cracked the Navier–Stokes challenge. What does that mean for physics?—
  10. Scientific AmericanWhat does OpenAI’s blockbuster mathematics proof mean for the real world?—
  11. Show 4 later sources
    1. The Guardian BusinessThe Guardian view on AI v mathematicians: humans are still vital to the field, but tech firms refuse to see that | Editorial—
    2. Scientific AmericanDid OpenAI solve the wrong Navier-Stokes problem?1%
    3. TechCrunchOpenAI forms math advisory group as its AI resolves more than 100 open problems1%
    4. Scientific AmericanMathematicians use AI to find mysterious symmetries, solving decades-old problem1%
  12. Current odds2%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. OpenAI forms math advisory group as its AI resolves more than 100 open problems TechCrunch ·
  2. The Guardian view on AI v mathematicians: humans are still vital to the field, but tech firms refuse to see that | Editorial The Guardian Business ·
  3. AI cracked the Navier–Stokes challenge. What does that mean for physics? Nature ·
  4. Open AI and the million-dollar maths problem - video The Guardian Business ·
  5. What a maths fracas tells us about AI and innovation News Feed ·
  6. OpenAI maths bombshell sparks debate about who gets credit in age of AI Nature ·
Show 8 more sources
  1. OpenAI breakthrough triggers ‘existential crisis’ in math Latest News from Science Magazine ·
  2. Mathematicians use AI to find mysterious symmetries, solving decades-old problem Scientific American
  3. Did OpenAI solve the wrong Navier-Stokes problem? Scientific American
  4. What does OpenAI’s blockbuster mathematics proof mean for the real world? Scientific American
  5. OpenAI Says It's Made Progress on a Second $1 Million Math Problem decrypt.co
  6. OpenAI Is Close To Solving Another Millennium Prize Math Problem theinformation.com
  7. OpenAI cracks the hidden math that keeps your texts from turning to gibberish Scientific American
  8. Which million-dollar math problem could AI solve next? Scientific American

Related prediction markets

Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right

  • Polymarket Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI? 2% ends 1 Jan 2028

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

  • Resolved Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026? No 30d ago

    The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right

    Wrong market?

  • Polymarket Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? 2% $41 24hends 1 Jan 2027

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

Have your say

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

Email me when the odds move

We email a link to confirm first. At most one alert email every six hours; unsubscribe in one click. Privacy

In this story

  • OpenAI
  • Navier-Stokes
  • Millennium Prize Problems
  • Hodge Conjecture
  • Fields medal
Embed this story

Paste this into any web page to show the live odds, with a link back here.